Why we can expect cases to keep soaring and who is most at risk: Experts explain 4 charts that sum up COVID-19 right now in Ontario

With Monday’s of 700 new COVID-19 cases reported, experts say to expect more days with 500-plus new cases as more people get tested and many continue to ignore public health guidelines.

And with Premier Doug Ford himself confirming that Ontario is now in its second wave of the virus, the importance of physical distancing, mask-wearing and handwashing couldn’t be more clear. While the premier said the second wave will be “worse than the first wave,” he stressed that we don’t yet know just how bad it will be.

In Ontario at least, experts say it will get worse before it gets better, with more days with new-case totals at levels not seen since the beginning of the pandemic — or even higher.

Ahmed Al-Jaishi, an epidemiologist and PhD candidate in health research methodology at McMaster University, said he expects to see more than 500 new cases reported daily for the next few days, for two reasons.

“We are seeing more people being tested, which is good,” he said, as well as a “huge backlog in tests that is being processed.”

Here, the Star takes stock of some key indicators in the fight against COVID-19 and asks experts to weigh in.

New cases continue to grow in Ontario

While the actual number of new cases reported Monday was 700, the rolling seven-day average continued its upward trend to 465, up from 426 the day before.

Why are case numbers growing? Al-Jaishi says he thinks it’s likely related to a mixture of the provincial government relaxing control measures and people being more relaxed about following guidelines.

“Also, there are long wait times for people to get tested and delays in hearing back about test results. So infected people with no symptoms or mild symptoms may inadvertently spread the virus while waiting,” he said, noting he has no hard evidence for this.

Dr. Lawrence Loh, Peel Region’s medical officer of health, said there is a general cycle there of cases moving from workplaces to homes to social gatherings. These are not big gatherings of the sort that got , but even something as simple as coffee or dinner with a friend, he said; “then those people take it into the workplace.”

Where are the most cases?

Toronto continues to put up big numbers, adding 381 cases to the count on Monday.

Dr. Eileen de Villa, the city’s medical officer of health, said Monday that she will recommend restrictions at a city council meeting Wednesday including reducing the number of people allowed in a bar or restaurant to 75 from 100 and the number of patrons at a table from 10 to six.

Peel Region reported 104 cases on Sept. 27, according to . “There are a lot of workplaces that are doing the right thing, absolutely,” said Loh. “But we’ve found pretty much in every instance where we have a workplace cluster or a large workplace outbreak, two things are happening.”

The first, he says, is that the proprietor is not taking precautions. The second, true for a number of clusters he says, is that employees are removing their masks during breaks in close contact with other employees.

Loh says Peel is seeking funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada to open an isolation centre to stop the cycle. He says it’s been difficult to convey to people that self-isolation means not having contact with people within your own household; an isolation facility could interrupt the cycle of transmission.

He thinks the province’s new limits on informal social gatherings — 10 people indoors and 25 outdoors — were a good step but he says further restrictions may be needed when it comes to large formal gatherings such as at weddings or religious services. Data indicates “some fairly large exposures that are occurring in those settings in our region,” said Loh.

Ottawa reported the third highest number of new cases on Sunday at 89, according to the public health data. York Region was fourth with 56.

Who is getting the virus?

Of the 700 cases reported Monday, 60 per cent were in people under the age of 40, according to a tweet by Health Minister Christine Elliott. It’s a trend we have been seeing in recent weeks.

Since June 1, people between the ages of 20 and 39 have made up 45 per cent of all cases in Ontario.

“It probably reflects that this is a highly social group. It’s the most social age demographic other than under-20s,” said Todd Coleman, an epidemiologist at Wilfrid Laurier University.

Loh said not only is this demographic more mobile when it comes to social engagements, but it is also a group that has a large number of working individuals.

“We really need (young) people to stick to the precautions,” Loh said. “Because keeping transmission down in that group means we won’t see leakage into senior settings, leakage into other age groups that may be more vulnerable.”

So should we think about returning to earlier stages of reopening? Neither Al-Jaishi nor Coleman think so. But they do suggest a few measures that might help cut down on new cases.

“I think we certainly should be adding more restrictions to avoid people gathering at restaurants, bars, nightclubs, casinos, among other venues,” said Al-Jaishi. “With those restrictions, we also need to be mindful of supporting these businesses financially to ensure their survival.”

“The idea is we need to figure out a way to either prevent people from coming into contact with each other, or, if they do come into contact with each other, having those masks be really a priority,” said Coleman, adding that there is never a perfect solution.

Worldwide death toll

Deaths worldwide from COVID-19 exceeded one million people on Monday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. has suffered the highest numbers of casualties — 204,995, followed by Brazil with 141,741.

In Canada, more than 9,000 people have died, the majority — about 70 per cent — aged 80 years and older. Deaths of people in their 70s accounted for another 18 per cent.

Among the provinces, Quebec has had the most deaths at nearly 6,000 followed by Ontario with 2,839, which includes 1,833 residents of long-term care homes and eight health-care workers, according to on September 27.

Canada’s death toll ranks 20th among countries, according to the Johns Hopkins data, though we are only 26th in the world when it comes to the number of cases.

“I think, just broadly, (the number of deaths) are representative of the issues that exist in long term care,” said Coleman.

Patty Winsa is a Toronto-based data reporter for the Star. Reach her via email:

Kenyon Wallace is a Toronto-based investigative reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @KenyonWallace or reach him via email: