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Heather Scoffield: Want to save the economy? Let’s start with the $150 billion that Canadians have saved during the pandemic

Aug 9, 2021 , , , , by shlf

There’s a good reason why the cry to “buy local” for Christmas shopping has risen to a fever pitch, flooding our inboxes and social media streams with high-pressure ads to attend online craft markets and order takeout food.

Canadian households are sitting on more than $150 billion in savings right now, according to new calculations from BMO Capital Markets. They’re hunkering down for the duration of the pandemic, and the private sector and governments alike are nervous that all that money will sit dormant or seep out of the country and into the hands of Amazon.

It’s a huge amount of money, much larger than the fiscal stimulus package of between $70 billion and $100 billion that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says is on the way next year.

Like the local restaurants and the artisans at the Christmas fair, Freeland made it clear this week she has her eye on all that money. She wants to “unleash” it and see it flowing through the economy, bringing consumption, sales and investment back to life.

But not quite yet. It’s part of her government’s post-pandemic yet-to-be-designed recovery plan for the future. That’s where the tension lies.

“The government’s growth plan will include investments that deliver on our commitment to create a million jobs and restore employment to pre-pandemic levels, as well as unleash some of the Canadian economy’s pre-loaded stimulus: additional savings that have accumulated in bank accounts of some Canadians and balance sheets of some businesses,” Freeland said Monday as she presented her fiscal update in the House of Commons.

“This will foster economic rebirth in the short run and strengthen this country’s competitiveness in the long run.”

This week’s fiscal update took a small step to encourage “buy local” by announcing the intention to charge sales tax on purchases from Amazon.

But for businesses, especially small firms that have had trouble moving their operations online and keeping their customers, waiting for a recovery plan feels far too long.

They’re pushing government authorities at every level to create the conditions for at least some reopening. They’re urging funding for improved testing, help to make public places safer, more personal protective equipment for firms and broader use of the COVID-19 app.

The hope, explains Perrin Beatty of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, is to funnel some of those excess savings in people’s bank accounts into struggling businesses in a safe and cautious way — well before vaccines bring the pandemic to an end.

“We need a strategy to manage the risk,” he says.

The big pile of savings sticks out like a sore thumb when you look at the state of the pandemic economy.

Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that Canada’s GDP grew a record-breaking 8.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 — which works out to a 40.5 per cent expansion if that pace were to continue for a year.

But of course it won’t continue for a year, and in fact it’s less of a boost than many economists had projected for the rebound following the pervasive pandemic closures earlier this year. The Canadian economy is still 5.3 per cent smaller now than it was a year ago, and the next few months are, by all accounts, going to be just dreadful, Christmas shopping be damned.

Despite the downturn, savings have soared. Canadians were stashing away 14.6 per cent of their disposable income this fall. That’s less than the 27.5 per cent of this summer, but far, far above the single digits of the pre-pandemic economy.

Critics are quick to say it’s proof the federal government dished out way more money than it needed do, especially in the early days of the pandemic when almost anyone could qualify for emergency response benefits.

But shows that low-income households needed most of their CERB funds to get by. Middle-class families soaked up the CERB and had to borrow more. And most of the excess savings are in the bank accounts of high-income households — likely a factor of pandemic constraints rather than government largesse or excess caution.

That’s why Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, suspects the federal government may not need a big stimulus package after all. When pandemic restrictions disappear, those high-income people with the bulging bank accounts may pay off some debts, but they will also be wanting to travel, entertain themselves and their friends, and spend lots of money.

There won’t be much of a need to “unleash” anything, Porter argues, because that $150 billion will spring to life on its own accord.

“I think there’s a ton of pent-up demand,” he says.

If only it were set free in time for Christmas.

Heather Scoffield is the Star’s Ottawa bureau chief and an economics columnist. Follow her on Twitter:

ultafcc

Most Ontarians believe the pandemic will last 1 to 2 years and favour continued COVID-19 restrictions, new Star poll says

Aug 9, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Most Ontarians believe the, which struck in March, will last one to two years, a new Star poll suggests.

The Campaign Research survey also found a vast majority of respondents want restrictions to continue until the end of November to curb the spread of coronavirus infections, which have risen to new heights in recent weeks.

This comes as is expected to announce Tuesday a new framework that would allow businesses, such as , to re-open for indoor services.

Overall, 72 per cent of people believe the government has done “a good job” responding to the pandemic with 21 per cent saying it has done “a bad job” and 6 per cent were unsure.

But 69 per cent feel restrictions should remain in place until the end of the month.

That included 54 per cent who felt the government has done “a good job” and 15 per cent who felt the government “has done a bad job because the rules and restrictions were not effective enough and more restrictions and more enforcement must be put into place.”

Campaign Research polled 1,118 people across Ontario last Thursday through Monday using Maru/Blue’s online panel. It is an opt-in poll, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The firm found 23 per cent believe the pandemic will last one year, 21 per cent a year and a half, 14 per cent two or more years, and 13 per cent feel it will “never be fully over.”

Only two per cent think it will end within three months, six per cent within six months, and nine per cent within nine months.

“It tells me that people are realistic,” Campaign Research principal Nick Kouvalis said Tuesday.

“A large amount of people are listening to everything … and they understand that this thing is not going away soon,” said Kouvalis, who has worked with Conservative and Liberal candidates across Canada and managed the winning Toronto mayoral campaigns of Rob Ford and John Tory.

Indeed, 52 per cent agree with Premier Doug Ford’s decision last month to enter a modified Stage 2, which limited restaurants and bars to patio and takeout service, while 18 per cent feel the government should have remained in the less restrictive Stage 3.

At the same time, 19 per cent believe the Tories should impose a Stage 1 “stay-at-home” lockdown as was the case last spring.

“There’s definitely a balancing act for the government,” said Kouvalis.

Almost three-quarters — 72 per cent — feel COVID-19 measures should continue to be implemented on a “region-by-region” basis as opposed to 20 per cent that favour province-wide curbs while nine per cent were unsure.

With Finance Minister Rod Phillips unveiling a provincial budget on Thursday, 44 per cent of respondents feel the Tories are “spending the right amount” while 14 per cent believe they are spending “too much” and 18 per cent “too little” and 24 per cent weren’t sure.

The governing Tories received good marks from respondents when asked which party is best at guiding the economic recovery with 41 per cent favouring them compared with 13 per cent for the New Democrats, nine per cent for the Liberals, four per cent for the Greens, one per cent for another party, while 33 per cent were undecided.

In terms of the ballot test, the Conservatives were at 39 per cent, the Liberals at 19 per cent, the New Democrats at 17 per cent, the Greens six per cent with 17 per cent undecided.

is the Star’s Queen’s Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter:

ythytbu

Rosie DiManno: Growing up is a torment at the best of times, never mind in times like these

Jul 1, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Coming of age in the epoch of the coronavirus is a bummer.

Just when young adults are starting to spread their wings, exploring independence, punching through the parental bubble wrap, they’ve been stuffed back into infantilizing stasis.

The sheer fun of salad days has been smothered by a pandemic. When they do venture out in youth packs, cue the lectures and shaming. Because that’s always worked so well, yes?

Hard to be a rebel without a cause — the essence of angsty young adulthood — when you’re fingered for causing community contamination, bringing COVID-19 into the household, knocking off your grandparents. As London, Ont., Mayor Ed Holder berated last month, amidst positive case counts that climbed to levels not seen since the spring, scores linked to off-campus partying by Western University students: “You are going to kill someone.”

And turn down that godawful music while you’re at it.

No graduation ceremonies. No proms. No campus activities. No concerts. No moshing. No hangin’ out — except maybe at the mall, idly. Which fortunately is at least one popular time-waster not yanked back to forbidden in Ontario hot spot municipalities. Kingston has approved new fines for anyone hosting off-campus house parties, Queen’s University even threatening to expel students who do so.

Browbeating does not change behaviour.

“There are so many milestones that we have lost, like graduation,” says Em Hayes, a youth engagement facilitator at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health who is pursuing a masters in teaching. “Going back to school has been very challenging. I’m exhausted talking to a computer screen all day. I miss my community although most of us are also finding new ways to create communities.

“You don’t realize how much it meant to be in the physical presence of others until it was taken away.’’

Little wonder that mental health — anxiety segueing to depression — is cause for acute concern among pulse-takers of the youthful demographic in Canada.

“The pandemic and its restrictions are uniquely impacting young people because it impacts their developmental milestones and tasks right now,” says Joanna Henderson, associate professor of psychiatry at the University of Toronto, who is extensively involved with mental health initiatives for children and youth at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health. “It doesn’t take long as adults to forget what it was like to be 16 or 18 or 20.”

Growing up is a torment at the best of times. These are the worst of times.

“They’re wired to be engaging socially, to be moving towards autonomy, to be learning, to be securing employment,” Henderson points out. “All of those things are being impacted by the pandemic and their restrictions. We have young people who are living by themselves, completely alone, and it may be the first time that they’ve moved out on their own. So, extremely difficult circumstances to cope with. And we have other young people who are in very close multi-generational homes in small dwellings who are experiencing tremendous economic stress.’’

But see a photo on social media of teenagers enjoying a bush party and BOOM — public health officials, politicians and online nags go berserk. How selfish. Of course they’re selfish. Show me a young person who isn’t self-absorbed. Traditionally, that’s why we cut them slack — because they’re not yet mature and conscientious.

Data shows more people in their 20s have tested positive for COVID-19 than any other age group. As of Oct. 16, 18.5 per cent of positive cases related to people aged 20 to 29 across Canada, 11.6 per cent among those 19 and under. The upside, doubtless due to their prevailing good medical health, is that they account for just 3.1 per cent of hospitalizations, the second lowest age bracket.

“My observation is there’s a focus on the 18-35 year old age range because we’re seeing increased rates there,” Henderson continues. “That is sometimes expressed in judgmental ways and I have concerns about that because the places that opened up during Stage 3 were places where young people are commonly employed and residences in universities, places of predominantly young people.”

Young people who, according to various studies and polls, are experiencing anxiety and depression, as high as a 20 per cent increase in that cohort.

“We haven’t given as much guidance as we need to on how to make those complex weighing of different places, how to respect the fact that we have young people out there kind of on the front line of our economy reopening,” says Henderson. “Recreation and partying is part of the story but certainly not the whole story. It’s easy to say stay six feet apart and wear a mask. But in actuality, we have pretty conflicting messages circulating right now about what’s important in our communities, in our economy, and how we’re expecting all people, including young people, to move forward.”

What Hayes describes as “the vagueness of the rules that are put out there.”

Henderson: “These are moments of interactions and transactions that are happening. It’s really incumbent on decision-makers and adults to communicate clearly and realistically if we actually want our messaging to resonate with young people.”

Considering that half the world’s population is younger than 30, this demographic has hardly any say-so in how COVID-19 is being targeted and the extent to which for-the-good-of-everybody restrictions are screwing up their lives. There is, for example, no youth voice at the “experts” table that Premier Doug Ford is all the time citing. There isn’t even a young people’s table, as is common at those Thanksgiving gatherings we harangued into not having last weekend.

“Young people need to be at the table in these conversations because they’re experts in their own lives,” says Henderson. “Meaningfully at the table, not in a tokenistic way, where they can share their expertise.”

The tenor of the demographic was reflected in the results of a survey led by Henderson in her capacity as executive director of Youth Wellness Hubs Ontario, a government-funded initiative to transform youth mental health services in the province. The one-stop-shop model has been implemented in 10 communities across Ontario thus far, though virtually because of the pandemic. The cross-sectional survey was conducted with 622 youth participants, which allowed for open-ended answers, included both young people who’ve already connected with mental health services and those who hadn’t.

The result revealed a “statistically significant” deterioration of mental health across the clinical and community samples — 68 per cent of youth in the clinical sample and 39.9 per cent in the community sample met screening criteria for an “internalizing disorder.” Perhaps surprisingly, substance use had actually declined in both cohorts since the pandemic struck (as of May data), although 23.2 per cent of youth (clinical) and 3.0 (community) could be described as having a substance use disorder.

As the survey concluded: “Among youth with histories of mental health concerns, the pandemic context poses a significant risk for exacerbation of need. In addition, youth may experience the onset of new difficulties.”

These are the years, from teens to mid-20s, when mental health issues often manifest themselves.

What’s most impressed Henderson, however, are the coping mechanisms that young adults are seizing upon to mentally and emotionally survive the pandemic, without scars.

All kinds of different strategies, from journaling, to engaging with art, to meditation, to exercise, to gardening and, of course, connecting on virtual platforms such as Instagram, including livestreamed events.

One Hub community, in a particularly economically disadvantaged area, collectively secured food donations, created an online cooking course — teaching each other — and made food baskets for distribution.

“That’s not what we would conventionally think of as mental health services. However, it was very enriching for young people’s mental health in the context of skill-building, the sense of being engaged in a productive activity, supporting their families and connecting with the community.”

There was, in fact, a subset of the young adult community surveyed that reported improved mental health during the lockdown. “People talked about the stress of being so busy, having that alleviated. We heard about the relief from school-specific stressors, varying forms of, ‘I didn’t realize how stressful my life was until I’ve been forced to take a break.’”

Many also reconnected more deeply with families. Prior to the pandemic, how many teens really wanted to hang out with mom and dad?

Occasional folly notwithstanding — young people throughout history view themselves as indestructible, no matter the safety warnings drummed into their skulls — they get it, they get COVID-19, they get masking and physical distancing. But the coronavirus has robbed them of so much in their waning days of innocence.

Says Em Hayes: “Youth understand the gravity of the situation.”

Rosie DiManno is a Toronto-based columnist covering sports and current affairs for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: