Warning from a pandemic data dump? Ottawa sewage shows ‘alarming’ spike in COVID-19 virus

Warning from a pandemic data dump? Ottawa sewage shows ‘alarming’ spike in COVID-19 virus

A novel method of sampling sewage for is showing an “alarming” surge in viral transmission in Ottawa, researchers say — a detection process that belies flattening case counts registered by the province’s strained testing system.

Toronto is set to get its own poop report within weeks.

Because people with COVID-19 shed the virus in their stool, the presence of viral fragments in municipal wastewater has been successfully used as an . In Ontario, scientists at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) and the University of Ottawa have been at the forefront of this technique.

After remaining low all summer, the virus levels in Ottawa’s wastewater doubled over the month of September, the researchers say. Then, in the first half of October, it doubled again. Tuesday’s measurements were particularly concerning.

“This morning, we can see rather alarmingly that it’s three to six times higher than it was back on Oct. 8. So it seems to be tracking up,” says Dr. Alex MacKenzie, a pediatrician and senior scientist at CHEO Research Institute.

“It’s going up, and it’s going up faster, which is something to take note of,” said Rob Delatolla, a professor of civil engineering at the University of Ottawa.

Epidemiologists that upheaval in the province’s testing system — difficulty accessing assessment centres, backlogs of swabs, and changes to testing criteria — mean that any apparent flattening in Ontario’s case curve should be considered suspect.

Ottawa’s seven-day average of new cases dropped from 117 on Sunday to 98 on Tuesday, according to the public health unit’s monitoring dashboard. Both Premier Doug Ford and Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams have recently referenced signs the Ontario curve is flattening.

But testing in Ottawa has also dropped since the switch to appointment-based booking, according to data from the Ottawa COVID-19 Testing Taskforce. Across the city’s five assessment centres, the weekday swab average fell from 2,686 in the week before the change to 2,184 the week afterwards, a drop of 19 per cent.

“What is innovative and important is that this is an indicator that is not based on the effectiveness of the testing system at any given point in time,” says Alex Munter, CHEO’s president and CEO.

“I do think it is really useful information … that can help guide policy-making and help the community understand where things are at. And so from our perspective here in Ottawa, where we have the highest rate per hundred thousand people of COVID at the moment, this is a really important measure of the effectiveness of our public health regulation.”

Across the province and country, researchers are already providing sewage samples to municipalities to use as part of their COVID-19 monitoring arsenal.

At Ryerson University in Toronto, Kimberley Gilbride, a professor of chemistry and biology, and Claire J. Oswald, an associate professor in the department of geography and environmental studies, are part of a national COVID-19 Wastewater Coalition through the non-profit Canadian Water Network.

It’s taking them a little longer than their counterparts in Ottawa, given the size of Toronto. But they hope to have results within the next weeks to month, Oswald said, which they will first share with Toronto Public Health.

“This could be an additional source of information that’s made public,” she said, perhaps even on , alongside other indicators such as hospitalizations and new daily cases.

Oswald said they are looking at the west side of the city and have “initial results” from the wastewater treatment plant that serves that area.

As it’s so “time and money intensive” to get the samples and analyze them, they decided to keep the scope tight, but this includes the hard- hit northwest corner of the city.

They’re using early results to “refine the method right now,” in collaboration with groups like the one working in Ottawa, and doing quality assurance.

They are also working to get sampling sites set up “upstream” of the wastewater treatment plant, so they can see different branches of the sewage system at the community level.

has been used in cities across the world, from to New Haven, to track trends in COVID-19 cases, and

The virus has a relatively long incubation period of up to two weeks. Some people don’t show symptoms at all, others don’t for a while, and not everyone will get tested.

But they shed virus in feces, and everyone’s goes down the drain whether they know they have COVID-19 or not.

The RNA fragments of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, like a fingerprint, can tell scientists that the virus was there.

It’s known as an “envelope virus” because it has a layer of fat around it that doesn’t make it into sewage, so it’s not infectious at that point.

Sewage epidemiology can’t replace classic outbreak tools of testing, and isolation. But it can be a complement to those tools and serve as an early warning system for spikes in cases, regardless of limitations on testing.

Toronto Water is also participating in two other “independent research initiatives” on the virus in wastewater, according to a spokesperson: with Statistics Canada/Public Health Agency of Canada (National Microbiology Laboratory), and with the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks/University of Guelph.

“Toronto Water’s contribution is limited to the collection and supply of wastewater samples to the researchers. Timelines and research results may be available through the respective research teams,” the spokesperson said in an email.

Toronto’s Public Health head Dr. Eileen de Villa was asked about the status of these projects at the daily COVID press conference, Wednesday. She said the agency is “actively participating in those research endeavours and engaging with the researchers on their findings.”

Similar projects are also underway at campuses, including and the and an official with Peel Region said they plan to publish findings from sewage tracking there online, on Friday.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health, said at the province’s daily news briefing that this kind of surveillance can be “an alarm bell,” as research has shown it’s possible to “identify an increase in the sewage probably two-to-four days earlier than you start to see an increase in cases.”

This kind of data is being collected “sort of on a pilot basis” across the province, she said.

CHEO Research Institute’s MacKenzie warned that Ottawa’s wastewater surge this week came from infections that occurred before the long weekend, “so let’s hope everyone behaved over Thanksgiving.”

Kate Allen is a Toronto-based reporter covering science and technology for the Star. Follow her on Twitter:

May Warren is a Toronto-based breaking news reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter:

LIVE VIDEO: Ontario Premier Doug Ford provides daily update on COVID-19 November 18

In a news conference at Queen’s Park, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and provincial cabinet ministers Christine Elliott (health) and Dr. Merrilee Fullerton (long-term care) provide an update on their government’s response to the ongoing COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic. They are joined by Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health.

In Brampton, Mayor Patrick Brown and municipal officials provide an update on COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) in the city.

Barrie man jailed for manslaughter after supplying friend with deadly opioid

A 31-year-old Barrie man who unknowingly gave a friend a deadly synthetic opioid instead of cocaine was sentenced to 18 months in jail for manslaughter.

Justice Jonathan Bliss released his reasons for the sentence Oct. 30, saying while Robert Rodgers was remorseful for the overdose death of Darci Beers on Aug. 18, 2017, he failed to help her when she needed it most.

Bliss said there’s no doubt Rodgers believed the white powdery substance he shared with Beers and her neighbour was cocaine. 

When Beers ingested a substance she believed was cocaine but was actually U-47700, known as “Pinky” on the street, it had a fatal effect.

While Beers died in her apartment, Rodgers and the neighbour were both rendered unconscious, the sentencing report says.

When the neighbour awoke, he tried to perform CPR on Beers, who was on the kitchen floor.

The neighbour yelled at Rodgers to call 911, but instead he called his mother to come pick him up, Bliss wrote. Other neighbours came to help, speaking with dispatchers on the phone until paramedics arrived.

“All the while Mr. Rodgers did nothing. Mr. Rodgers was certainly emotional and remorseful during his interview with police, but when he needed to act, when he needed to demonstrate concern and empathy for someone other than himself, for something he was responsible for, he failed,” Bliss said.

Beers was the mother of a three-year-old boy.

Rodgers pleaded guilty after being charged with manslaughter and criminal negligence causing death in November 2017.

Rodgers told police he only knew his drug dealer as “Josh” and provided officers with the dealer’s phone number. However, police were unable to track the dealer down.

Bliss said despite Rodgers believing he was providing cocaine, he should have been wary of possible opioid substitutes.

Rodgers did not test the drug when he purchased it, and ended up suffering a small stroke when he consumed it, the court heard.

“It could not have been lost on him that cocaine is still a dangerous drug that alone could have been fatal, and, even in 2017, was being adulterated with other drugs with fatal consequences.” 

Rodgers was sentenced last February.

Martin Regg Cohn: Ontario’s PC government has changed its tune on hiking our debt. Don’t expect the same on raising taxes

It took a Progressive Conservative government and a pandemic to push Ontario’s debt beyond $400 billion.

Now it’s barrelling toward $500 billion, which translates into half a trillion dollars — plus or minus. That adds up to the biggest debt for any “subsovereign” entity on the planet.

Is our province in over its proverbial head?

Finance Minister Rod Phillips shakes his head: “No.”

Not to worry, Phillips says reassuringly in the middle of the cavernous Toronto Star newsroom, now nearly empty in mid-pandemic. He is and the newspaper’s senior leadership, and he is on the spot — even if socially distanced.

In opposition, his Tories pointed accusing fingers over Ontario’s rising repayment burden. Now, in power, their fingerprints are all over that debt.

It can now be said that the Tories are doing the right thing — not the right wing thing. Borrowing big is risky, but doing less would be reckless.

At what point does Ontario’s debt load reach the point of no return?

The rate of return for the province’s infrastructure investments has never been higher, because : 1.6 per cent a year, according to his . Phillips is correct that in the worst of times, there has never been a better time to borrow — and lock in for the long term.

Ontario is not an over-leveraged private firm, nor an overstretched household. The province is deeply diversified, endowed with valuable natural resources, rich human resources and unrivalled competitive advantages — geographic and governmental.

True, the province is not a nation. Hence the old bugaboo about our so-called “subsovereign” status, about which it is often said that we have borrowed more money than any comparable subnational jurisdiction on earth.

But what does that mean in the real world?

Yes, Ontario is uniquely indebted. But it is also uniquely endowed and uniquely positioned — a province unlike any other, by virtue of its population but also its economic heft and industrial base. Other provinces have not been so lucky of late, running out of runway when investors balked at their public debt offerings.

Hence the recurring spectre of the debt wall that haunts every government, not least the NDP government of the early 1990s: What if Wall Street or Bay Street stops buying our bonds because they deem our debt not a good bet?

A provincial treasurer cannot allow himself to discuss such delicate matters in public, so Phillips opts for discretion over speculation. Suffice to say there are countless reasons that the bond markets cannot now resist buying a half-trillion dollars in Ontario debt.

Perhaps the real answer is that no other jurisdiction fits our subsovereign description, both in terms of debt obligations but also governing obligations. American states are restricted in their borrowings, which is why our province is more indebted than any of them, and thus different by definition.

American governments also have less onerous responsibilities, notably in health care — OHIP delivers universal coverage that no U.S. state offers, yielding savings to employers who aren’t saddled with costly private health plans. Comparing us to overseas jurisdictions is equally pointless because we are incomparably well situated, given our proximity to American markets and a stable currency.

There’s another reason bond markets and credit rating agencies like Ontario’s debt, but which the finance minister is also loath to discuss publicly. Just as it’s too risky for Phillips to rattle the bond markets over our debt, it’s also too dangerous for him to discuss dreaded tax increases.

The reason our debt keeps ballooning is that our taxes aren’t keeping pace. Put another way, the better way to get a grip on our spiralling debt isn’t to cut spending on services — already the lowest per capita in Canada — but raise taxes to catch up with other provinces, such as Quebec.

The question is not merely ideological but fiscal. Credit rating agencies can see for themselves that Ontario has a strong tax base to bail itself out — if not now, later; if not mid-pandemic, perhaps post-pandemic.

Ontarians will eventually have to level with themselves about the delusion that we can continue to pay low taxes and low hydro rates while bankrolling rising costs and growing investments that keep us competitive. Perhaps that’s why Phillips has quietly ignored his party’s pledge in the last election to lower hydro rates by a further 12 per cent.

Promise made, promise kept — on hold.

As it is, the treasury is already bleeding billions of dollars to pay for hydro subsidies dreamed up by the last Liberal government to ratchet down costs for ratepayers on the backs of taxpayers (egged on by the Tories in opposition, echoed by the NDP). In this month’s budget, Phillips opted to lower hydro rates further — but only for commercial customers, not for ordinary taxpayers who will be footing the bill.

The finance minister is betting lower electricity costs will attract more industrial investment, which in turn broadens the rate base. But taking on yet more debt to pay endless electricity bills is a gamble.

Phillips has a sleight of hand up his sleeve. He is not only borrowing other people’s money in record quantities, he is also spending other people’s money in vast quantities — courtesy of federal cash flow that has reached record heights.

Ontario still won’t say how much, but it’s a question I put to the finance department on budget day, and again Friday to Phillips in the Toronto Star newsroom. As ever, he pledged full transparency.

Promise made, promise kept — on hold. We’ll keep asking.

Martin Regg Cohn is a Toronto-based columnist covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

What to expect at the ski hill this pandemic winter

COVID-19 has taken many things from Ontarians, but skiing isn’t one of them. Neither is snowboarding. 

Public Health Ontario promotes physical activity for its role in maintaining the health and fitness of people of all ages, and with fewer options across the province for indoor exercise and recreation this winter, Paul Pinchbeck, president of the Canadian Ski Council (CSC), says this year is as good as any to hit the slopes.

“We believe being active outdoors in the winter is a key to a year-round active lifestyle. There are significant health benefits associated with being outdoors on a regular basis,” he said

“There are not only significant physical benefits to being outdoors, but significant mental health benefits, and that is a really important thing.”

The CSC has published a set of public health-compliant guidelines ski resorts will follow to help keep staff and visitors as safe as possible this winter. 

Here is what Ontarians can expect during visits to their local ski hills: 

Face coverings: Face coverings or masks will be required wherever physical distancing isn’t possible, including in both indoor and outdoor spaces, except when eating or drinking. They will also be mandatory on ski lifts.

Physical distancing: A physical distance of two metres will be enforced in lines and on ski lifts, and current guidelines state only members of the same household or social bubble will be permitted to ride the ski lift together with less than two metres of separation.

There will be limitations to the number of people allowed to sit at a dining table together, but those limitations will vary based on local public health guidelines. Guests will be encouraged to sit only with members of their household or social bubble. These guidelines are subject to change as individual regions experience tightening or loosening public health restrictions. 

Cleaning: Ski resorts will establish cleaning and disinfection strategies for all areas, including high-touch areas such as restrooms, restaurants, dining areas, ticket offices and rental counters. 

Behind the scenes: Facilities will develop operational plans to allow for appropriate spacing between groups, including in ski lift lines, ticket lines, ski and snowboard lessons, employee spaces and food and beverage areas. 

Employees will receive training in COVID-19 safety and disinfection protocols according to public health guidelines. Employees will also be screened daily for COVID-19 symptoms and will be sent home if they exhibit symptoms or have come into contact with a positive case. 

For more information about these guidelines, visit .

Simcoe Muskoka health unit reports 171 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend

It wasn’t even close.

The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit reported 171 new COVID-19 cases Dec. 7, in the first public update of statistics since Friday. That smashes the previous weekend caseload high for the Simcoe-Muskoka region, recorded Nov. 30, of 96.

This region set a weekly record of 231 cases last week.

There is one new death to report today — a Simcoe County man in the 18-34 age demographic. That brings the total number of residents to succumb to the virus since the start of the pandemic to 53.

Of the region’s 24 cities and lower-tier municipalities, 19 had cases today. Barrie reported the most, by far, at 55. Next is New Tecumseth (18), Bradford and Innisfil (15 each), Springwater (12), Essa (11), Oro-Medonte (10), Orillia (nine), Midland (six), Clearview and Wasaga Beach (four each), Collingwood (three), Tay (two) and Adjala-Tosorontio, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Muskoka Lakes and Ramara (one each).

Twenty-one residents 17 years of age or under — seven in Barrie, four in Innisfil, three each in Essa and Springwater, two in New Tecumseth, one each in Orillia and Ramara — are listed. Two people in the 80-plus age group — a Barrie woman and a Huntsville man — fell ill, too.

Sixteen incidents — all 10 Oro-Medonte cases, as well as four in Orillia, and one each in Barrie and Tay — are linked to congregate setting outbreaks. Five involve school outbreaks (three in Innisfil and one each in Barrie and Springwater). Two residents in Barrie and one in Bracebridge are connected to workplace outbreaks.

There are also two new cases involving institutional outbreaks — a Barrie man and a Springwater girl.

Sources of infection in today’s incidents otherwise range from “close contact” and “community-acquired” to “under investigation.”

Since March, 2,418 people have contracted COVID-19 in the region, with 1,994 successfully recovering.

There are 358 known active cases, including nine hospitalizations.

The health unit says there are 17 outbreaks in the region right now — six schools, four workplaces, two long-term-care homes, two congregate sites, one retirement home, one hospital and one community setting.

Schools affected are Alliston’s Banting Memorial, Angus’s Nottawasaga Pines, Barrie’s Portage View and Steele Street, Bradford District and Innisfil’s Nantyr Shores.

Georgian Bay General Hospital’s Midland site declared an outbreak in the 2 North in-patient unit last week; since then, one patient and six staff members have tested positive.

The two long-term-care facilities operating under outbreak protocols are the Essa unit at Beeton’s Simcoe Manor and 2 East at Barrie’s Mill Creek Care Centre.

Nearly 50 per cent of new infections in December with a known cause were acquired through close contact with a confirmed positive case; about 20 per cent were contracted in the community with no known source of infection, the health unit says.

More than 33 per cent of all active cases are among young adults in the 18-34 demographic. This age group has the highest rate of infection since June.

City of Barrie launches virtual fitness classes

Starting December 7, the City of Barrie will offer virtual, livestreamed fitness classes to existing recPASS members as a pilot program.

For the first two weeks, virtual classes will be open to current recPASS members only. Registration is now open at . Starting December 21, virtual classes will be open to all recreation users with an online account on

“We’re committed to offering unique ways for our community to maintain a healthy lifestyle, which right now is more important than ever,” says Mayor Jeff Lehman. “Our staff have been hearing from our members and residents that they’d like to see alternative, virtual options, and we’ve delivered on this with online fitness programming you can participate in safely from the comfort of home.”

Participants can choose from a variety of different instructors and fitness activities, including Bootcamp and Zumba. If successful, the City plans to rollout additional virtual recreation program offerings in the months ahead.

The City reminds all recreation program participants that if they have registered for a class (either in-person or virtual) but cannot make the time, to cancel through their online account before the class starts, which allows others to take the space.

More information about the reopening of the remainder of the City’s recreation and community facilities will be shared as it become available. The City continues to follow the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit’s guidelines on the safe reopening of facilities.

Bruce Arthur: Positive COVID tests at Thorncliffe Park school might tell us something. The Ontario government’s reaction might tell us more

Think of what you got away with when you were a kid, or what other kids at your school got away with. It could be elementary; it could be high school. When we grow up, some things happen that remain a secret.

Now think of schools today, and what is happening that we don’t know. Recent asymptomatic testing at Thorncliffe Park Public School of those subjects tested positive. There is more testing coming, in more hot spots. The principal wrote to parents and reassured them that the test positivity in the neighbourhood is 16 per cent. (As of Nov. 16. Toronto Public Health had Thorncliffe at 11.8 per cent.) This was repeated by the minister of education.

“I think it should be noted that the principal within the school had communicated that the positivity rate compared from the community to the school is quite vast, right?” said Minister Stephen Lecce. “So there’s something right happening in the context of the layers of prevention, and the fact that our staff, our students and parents are adhering to the public health advice. I accept that we still have work to do in the context of countering in our community.

“And it has to be said; I mean this morning, including the data points from Thorncliffe, 99.9 per cent of Ontario students are COVID-free. And that continues, I think to underscore the importance of following public health advice. And it really I think demonstrates the importance of keeping schools open, which is our plan for 2021.”

Some of that is clearly nonsense. Neighbourhood positivity is comprised of people with symptoms, or who have reasonable reason to think they’ve been exposed. This was a voluntary sample of asymptomatic people. You wouldn’t expect them to match up.

“That piece of data should not be thrown out there to make people feel better,” says Dr. Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist and modeller at the University of Toronto who sits on the province’s volunteer science table. “It’s not at all comparable, and it’s highly misleading to say that it is.” She points out a comparable number would be a voluntary sample of asymptomatic people in the community.

Further, Lecce’s favourite talking point — saying 99.9 per cent of students in Ontario are COVID-free — was a vacant claim before they ran those 433 voluntary tests at Thorncliffe and found 19 extra cases; it is nonsense after.

We just don’t know. Children are at a higher rate than adults. A recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, released two weeks ago, examined 79 different jurisdictions and weighed of almost every intervention on how the virus was transmitted, and found closing schools was second only to cancelling small gatherings in terms of its impact.

And whether or not it was because the testing system all but blew up in late September, Ontario has not introduced surveillance testing, or even sentinel testing, that would tell us what was happening in schools. Contact rates have climbed, the virus has spread, and this province still has no idea where it’s coming from about half the time.

“The fact that you can go in and find all these cases, and then say we don’t think there’s a lot of transmission happening in schools, I don’t think you can say that with a straight face,” says Tuite. “You need to do more. You need to do more follow-ups in that particular school, and more broadly.

“But anyone who tells you either side of that question — anybody who tells you that no transmission is happening or tells you that schools are hotbeds of transmission — is not necessarily basing that on data.”

Tuite says the next step should be what the city of Ottawa does: retest the kids who were exposed to the asymptomatic carriers in five days, because that would give you a sense of whether it is spreading despite safety measures in schools. And while Toronto medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa said it seemed the Thorncliffe cases could be traced back to families, Tuite points out that in asymptomatic cases you can’t peg infection date to symptoms. And since adults are more likely to get symptoms than children, you can’t discern the direction of infection without using serology testing.

“I think we need to do more testing in schools, to have a better idea of what’s actually happening,” says Dr. Janine McCready, an infectious diseases doctor at Michael Garron Hospital in East York, which has been a leader in reaching out to and protecting its community. “If you have one kid occasionally showing up with symptoms, versus if you have a school and you’ve got 10 kids showing up before they’re symptomatic, or as they have mild symptoms, or multiple introductions, then one of those is going to set on fire. Same as in hospitals.”

Even this exposure means 200 kids have been sent home to isolate for 10 to 14 days, and that’s with class sizes capped at 15 for junior and senior kindergarten, and 20 for grades 1-9, because Thorncliffe is a high-risk school. And while Toronto and Peel have gotten federal money for isolation hotels, the province has not funded isolation facilities for people who cannot isolate at home. There are a lot of families in apartments in Thorncliffe Park.

We could be doing better. There is , and hopefully more after that. What if we find out kids are spreading the virus more than believed? Could smaller class sizes be back in the news? Could there be more pressure on the province’s baffling lack of support for isolation facilities? In Atlantic Canada, schools close because of a handful of cases, because a handful of cases there is treated as an emergency. What else would be on the table, if Ontario finds out something it doesn’t want to hear?

Look, schools should be the last thing to close. But it sure feels like this province hasn’t wanted to know what’s happening in there. Maybe we didn’t want to know what we might find out.

Bruce Arthur is a Toronto-based columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

First COVID-19 vaccine could be approved in Canada next month — on similar timeline to U.S.

A first could get Canadian regulatory approval by mid-December, officials said Thursday — putting this country on the same timeline as the United States.

Any vaccine must get the green light from Health Canada scientists before being rolled out in this country, and doses won’t be shipped here , Public Services and Procurement Minister Anita Anand had said last week.

The review process has already begun.

Health Canada’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Supriya Sharma, says federal scientists have been working closely with officials from the United States and Europe, and expect to reach a conclusion around the same time.

Of course, much is riding on the analysis of results, but officials from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration are currently reviewing the Pfizer vaccine candidate and a meeting with independent experts is , which, if successful, could pave the way for an emergency use clearance by midmonth.

“We’re basically looking at the same data packages, we have very similar authorization pathways that are available for public health emergencies,” Sharma said, adding that Pfizer is also furthest along in Canada.

“We’re expecting to make a final decision on the vaccines around the same time as both the U.S. FDA and the European Medicines Agency.”

If that timeline holds, it’ll be a validation of a new approval process that Canadian officials developed in the wake of the global pandemic specifically to speed up the availability of things that might treat COVID-19.

Review of new drugs can often take the better part of a year, so the government created what’s called an interim order, which came into force in September. It’s the equivalent to the emergency-use approval granted by the FDA, but while the Americans have handed out hundreds of speedy approvals, Canada’s process only saw its first approval last week.

The temporary system a product last Friday, with a nod for an antibody therapy made by U.S. pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly.

The government has ordered 26,000 doses of the therapy, which has shown promise in reducing hospitalization and emergency room visits for patients with COVID-19, with the first batches to be delivered in December.

The order allows the government to do things such as prioritize the review of anything related to COVID-19, and do what are called rolling submissions, in which companies report their results to the government as they do their testing, instead of waiting until the very end of their process to hand over data and test results. Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have all begun the rolling submission process.

Canada and the U.S. may be working on similar approval timelines, but questions about who will actually get initial doses .

Federal officials have long said that the first window for vaccine deliveries is the first quarter of 2021, though Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott appeared to call that schedule into question Wednesday, saying she no longer had a guarantee that vaccines would be delivered then.

“This is very concerning,” Elliott told reporters. “It’s really incumbent on the prime minister to stand up for Canada.”

Federal officials are standing by their initial timeline, saying that five out of the seven advance purchase agreements, which are still dependant on a vaccine being approved, have been finalized.

Premier Doug Ford said he would raise vaccine deliveries with Trudeau during the weekly call with other premiers.

“We have a lot of questions to ask,” he added. “When and how much and what types. … We can’t be last in line around the world.”

Ford said Canada should have the facilities to make vaccines under licence to ensure a supply, given the “massive” pharmaceutical industry here.

“We have the know-how. There’s nothing we can’t manufacture here.”

Experts have said that Canada doesn’t currently have enough capacity to manufacture vaccines, particularly the Pfizer and Moderna candidates that employ new mRNA technology, which is why Canada has locked down deals to have doses delivered, rather than buying the licence to manufacture them here.

With files from Rob Ferguson

‘We believe that churches are essential’: COVID-19 restrictions meet resistance from some religious groups

At least a handful of religious leaders across Western Canada are pushing back against provincial lockdowns and COVID-19 restrictions, saying the spiritual and communal needs of churchgoers are being given short shrift.

Arguing that the ability to attend church should be considered just as “essential” as going to the grocery store, some churches in recent weeks have held gatherings in open defiance of provincial rules.

It appears some cases could be headed to court.

Over the weekend, RCMP officers fined the Church of God in Sarto, Man., $5,000 and also issued citations of $1,296 each to six individuals after the church attempted to hold a drive-in service. According to the province’s latest public health order, “Religious and cultural gatherings must close or be provided virtually only.”

But lawyers with the Alberta-based Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms announced Wednesday they had sent a letter to Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister, threatening to file an injunction application if the province didn’t ease up on its prohibition of drive-in services.

“The concept of a drive-in religious service is a creative way that faith communities can carry out their religious services and provide community and encouragement to parishioners while ensuring compliance with social-distancing measures,” said the letter.

Jay Cameron, a lawyer for the justice centre, told the Star the restriction was completely unjustified and that such health orders need to undergo comprehensive debate in provincial legislatures.

“Liquor stores are open, marijuana stores are open, big box retailers are open, bars and restaurants in some places are open — and yet churches have been told to close,” he said.

“Lockdowns are destroying the community, they’re destroying social cohesion.”

It is “not a hopeless case” if the legal challenge is narrowly targeted at the prohibition of drive-in services, where people are presumed to be staying in their cars and not engaging in any physical contact, said Karen Busby, a University of Manitoba law professor.

That said, courts are generally reluctant to second guess government decisions, especially in those cases when the government is dealing with a new problem or a problem when there is conflicting or constantly emerging research, and acting to protect vulnerable populations, she said.

“When any of those circumstances are present, courts are reluctant to interfere with government choices,” she said.

Over in British Columbia, Brent Smith, pastor of the Riverside Calvary Chapel in Langley, joked to those assembled at his small church Sunday morning that, in hindsight, he should’ve chosen a different title for his sermon, “Letters from prison.”

Earlier that day, RCMP had fined the church $2,300 for violating a provincial order suspending all in-person gatherings and worship services.

After thanking those who had stuck around following an “eventful” start to the day, Smith proceeded to dive into his sermon covering letters written by Paul the Apostle during his house arrest in Rome, according to a recording of the service posted online.

“It’s been just a blessed morning. It really has,” he said.

Smith didn’t respond to the Star’s requests for comment Wednesday but in a statement over the weekend, his church told reporters, “If we have grounds to stand on then we don’t feel like we should close.”

“We certainly are not looking for a fight, we just believe there has been many inconsistencies with what is essential and we simply desire to worship our Lord in a safe and Biblical way.”

At least two churches in nearby Chilliwack, B.C. — Free Reformed Church and Free Grace Baptist Church — have also been holding in-person services, saying that new restrictions imposed earlier this month fly in the face of their charter-protected right to freedom of religion.

“The identification of what is and what is not an ‘essential service’ is certainly open for interpretation, but, in short, we believe that churches are essential, and that Christians are commanded by God to attend public worship,” Pastor James Butler told The Chilliwack Progress last week.

Chilliwack RCMP spokesperson Cpl. Mike Rail confirmed Wednesday that officers attended both churches and spoke with leadership. “Initial discussions were aimed at education and voluntary compliance. Despite this, both congregations did not comply with the Public Health Order.” No fines were issued.

One of the more high-profile religious leaders to express concern about government overreach on faith gatherings is Michael Miller, Catholic archbishop of Vancouver.

In a video posted on the Archdiocese of Vancouver YouTube channel, Miller said while he understood the need to beat the pandemic, he felt confused about why places of worship seemed to be singled out.

“It’s just puzzling when no evidence was offered about why religious gatherings were in some ways being singled out,” he said.

“It looks as if we were not treated on an equal basis.”

But Adrian Dix, B.C.’s health minister, told reporters Wednesday this was not a time to be questioning the restrictions and that everyone just needs to “dig in.”

“We need to come together now and follow (the orders) and work with each other and protect each other, which means no gatherings outside your immediate household,” he said.

“What was possible in August is not possible now. No amount of arguing or litigating will change that.”

Laura Beres, a professor of social work at King’s University College at Western University whose research encompasses spirituality, said that while spirituality is an essential element in many peoples’ lives, access to traditional religious services is not essential right now.

“In my local community, I have been impressed by the creativity of spiritual leaders in providing access to services online, via Facebook and, then, as restrictions were loosened, outside and with appropriate physical distancing and wearing of masks,” she said.

“Gathering in religious services provides the opportunity to feel connected to a community of shared faith, and to participate in meaningful and sacred rituals, but I have seen my local churches being able to provide some of this in ways they never would have had to consider previously.”

Joseph Wiebe, a professor of religion and ecology at the University of Alberta, offered a more blunt assessment. While “humans are as much soul as they are body … what, exactly, is the service rendered here in these gatherings that require amassing crowds of strangers?”

“If they’re feeling lonely, get a dog. If they want a sentimental experience, watch a holiday movie,” he said.

Wiebe went on to question whether some church leaders who were defying public health orders were allowing their egos to drive their decisions or operating with a mindset that their religious authority is above the law.

“At the end of the day, these folks are struggling with isolation and loneliness just like the rest of us, but think their personal needs supersede public health.”

Douglas Quan is a Vancouver-based reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: