Category: ultafcc

‘Be prepared for the changes you might see’: Social isolation impacts care home residents in Barrie

Donald Carty has definitely noticed a difference in his mother since she’s been isolated in a Barrie long-term care home.

Carty’s mom Viola lives with dementia and although he has visited her in-person before, he’s now been able to spend time with her in her room.

But he was surprised with his experience.

“I was elated when I was first able to see my mom (during an outdoor visit in the summer). I didn’t have that same feeling when I went to her room,” Carty said.

The first thing he noticed is she’s lost weight.

And the general vibe in the home wasn’t the same.

“When I went to the home, it was very quiet, it doesn’t seem to have the same energy it would have normally,” he said. “They seem to be more depressed. That was how I felt when I first walked on the floor.”

There might still be entertainment at most long-term care homes, Carty said, but not the same amount of one-on-one stimulation that helps someone with dementia.

“For example, I’m now able to touch my mom. That’s a therapeutic touch. I’m able to rub her hands, arms, legs and feet, or comb her hair. And my mom responded immediately.”

He’s also going to be bringing in puzzles for her to do to maintain cognitive function.

But not everyone has that option.

Collingwood’s Wilhelmina De Groot was nervous for her first visit in the same room as her husband Pieter Oct. 20.

He moved into a long-term care home last November and De Groot used to visit three or four times a week prior to the pandemic. The couple just celebrated their 59th wedding anniversary June 14, and that was done outdoors.

“For me, (this in-person visit) was very emotional, I didn’t realize how emotional it would be,” De Groot said. “I was so nervous and I’m not that kind of person. It lasted through the night as well. I felt sad and tense.”

Wearing gloves and a mask, all she was able to do was sit across the table from her husband for the half-hour visit.

“You cannot touch. I came in the door and Piet came in the other side and said hi.”

They talked and sang Dutch songs together, like they usually do.

“We had a Zoom meeting for his birthday Oct. 15 and I asked him if he remembered it,” De Groot said. “I could see on his face he didn’t. It was almost like he was going to cry.”

According to a 2014 report by the , social isolation affects the psychological and cognitive health of seniors, and is associated with higher levels of depression and suicide.

It found 44 per cent of seniors in residential care were diagnosed with depression or showed symptoms of depression.

And half of the people over the age of 80 reported feeling lonely, with men over the age of 80 having the highest suicide rate of all age groups.

And that’s not even during a pandemic.

“I think it is a complicated issue,” Alzheimer Society of Simcoe County manager of education and support programs Laura-Lynn Bourassa said. “When we talk about confinement, that’s an extreme.

“But as a result of COVID and the restrictions on visiting, that does impact what activities long-term care residents can do.”

Social interaction is usually a part of treatment for dementia, because it does play a role in overall brain health, she said.

“There is an impact in the changes family members are seeing with their loved ones, but you have to marry it with the progression of the disease,” she said.

A long-term care home contacted Bourassa this month for ways to prepare families for the decline they may see in their loved ones.

“Be forewarned when you’re going for a visit again, the person might not be functioning as they were.”

There could be more challenges with comprehension and what they see.

She said some families are distraught at having limited access to their loved one, especially when wearing protective equipment.

“The key is to help families prepare for this and adjust, so it’s not so much of a shock. Just be prepared for the changes you might see.”


STORY BEHIND THE STORY: After speaking with someone who works at a long-term care home, reporter Janis Ramsay dug further to see if seniors with dementia are progressing further into cognitive complications as a result of the pandemic isolation.

Yes, the mask stays on after you get vaccinated. Here’s why

While the will alleviate much of the need for physical distancing and masking long-term, it won’t immediately end public health measures, epidemiologists say.

Herd immunity, which refers to a large proportion of the community being immune to contracting the virus via vaccination, has to hit about 70 per cent in order for COVID-19 to be manageable, said Dr. Robyn Lee, an infectious disease expert and adjunct professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

Until we reach that threshold, public health measures need to continue.

“It’s going to take some time. And as the vaccine becomes available, we obviously have priority groups that need to be vaccinated first,” Lee said. “It’s going to be a number of months before the whole Canadian population has received a vaccine.”

The vaccine protects against symptomatic COVID-19, she said. Still unknown, however, is whether the vaccine will stop transmission entirely. At this point, it’s unclear if vaccinated people could be asymptomatic and still spread the virus to others.

“We don’t actually know whether (the vaccines) prevent somebody from becoming infected and then spreading it forward,” Lee said. What that means is that if there is a large amount of the population that isn’t yet vaccinated, they’re still at risk of potentially contracting the virus from vaccinated people.

“The key issue is that if people are vaccinated, and they can still spread it, then that’s a risk to the people who aren’t vaccinated,” she said.

While masking and physical distancing are necessary while the community builds herd immunity, this won’t last forever. As more people are vaccinated, restrictions can be reduced as potential outbreaks become easier to manage, Lee said.

Jean-Paul Soucy, a PhD student in epidemiology at Dalla Lana, agrees that once we reach the point where a majority of the population is vaccinated then governments can relax restrictions. “The ability for the virus to spread will be … much less.”

“Herd immunity is going to have a huge effect,” Soucy said. While we won’t be able to completely forget about the virus, “its control of our lives will be much less at that point.”

Soucy said he believes that by the end of summer, “we should be in an excellent position to start moving past (heightened public health measures).”

Lee says she hoped that by the end of 2021, we could be back to some semblance of pre-COVID normalcy. However, she cautions that we don’t yet know how long the vaccine will offer immunity from the virus.

“We don’t know how frequently, for example, we may need to be revaccinated,” she said. “I think we will still be looking at maintaining some distancing and masking for some time ahead.”

Jenna Moon is a breaking news reporter for the Star and is based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter:

COVID-19’s heavy toll pushed Ottawa to propose these changes to how migrant farm workers are housed

De-bunking beds. Restricting the sharing of toilet and shower facilities. Allowing access to phone service and free internet.

These are among the proposed requirements the federal government has levelled at farm operators as it tries to set a national housing standard for temporary foreign workers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The intent of new requirements would be to complement existing provincial-territorial housing standards and establish consistent, mandatory requirements for all employers who must provide accommodations to (temporary foreign workers),” said Employment and Social Development Canada in an information package provided for a consultation on the new rules, which was launched in late October.

“The approach would also include measures to strengthen the oversight for pre- and post-arrival inspections of worker accommodations to enable the enforcement of compliance with new requirements,” added the seven-page document.

Over the years, the federal government has held numerous reviews of its foreign worker program and advocates have repeatedly recommended the need for a national housing standard. But this one is different, giving some hope that officials are serious about these changes.

“There have been submissions around housing by people that have been involved in these consultations, but never was there a specific, focused consultation about housing and accommodation,” said Wilfrid Laurier University professor Jenna Hennebry, who has extensively researched migrant workers and labour migration.

“All their reviews and consultations led to very minuscule levels of change around housing. It’s always been a passing-the-buck, pushing-it-off-to-other-levels-of-governments scenario. What’s interesting is they are wading in into something that’s inherently inter-jurisdictional.”

Since the onset of the pandemic in this country back in March, at least 1,600 migrant farm workers have been infected with COVID-19 across Canada. There have been three reported deaths.

The consultation brief said the increased attention on employer-provided accommodations through COVID-19 has highlighted common deficiencies in the quality of housing and living conditions for workers, that may put both migrant workers and the community at risk of disease transmission.

Common complaints about housing, it says, include overcrowding and lack of privacy; an inadequate number of washrooms and kitchen facilities per worker; lack of adequate heating and cooling; as well as deficiencies in the structure, such as leaks, mould and poor plumbing.

The government’s proposed changes cover:

  • Building infrastructure to ensure workers have freedom of movement and can receive guests without restriction;
  • Common living spaces to ensure accommodations have proper heating and cooling equipment;
  • A sleeping quarter limit to address concerns about overcrowding and to make accommodations more adaptable to infectious illness outbreaks;
  • Washroom, eating and laundry facilities to be shared by workers through established ratios; and
  • Facilities such as phone service and free internet to allow workers connect with families and support organizations so they can access services without employers’ assistance.

However, migrant workers’ advocates said deplorable housing is only a symptom of the larger, structural problem with the migrant worker program.

“The federal government continues to live in its own echo chamber of undertaking cosmetic consultations rather than take the necessary steps to address why migrant farm workers live and work under inhumane conditions in Canada,” said Chris Ramsaroop of Justicia for Migrant Workers.

“Housing concerns are widely known and they will continue until steps are taken to address the power imbalance, where employers exert control over the lives of the workers who put food on our table.”

Although the consultation also seeks input from workers, Syed Hussan of Migrant Workers Alliance for Change doubts if the government intends to hear their voices. Many migrant farm workers have left Canada after the season and won’t be back to March, after the consultation wraps up on Dec. 22.

“What we’re asking the government to do is workers’ priorities, which include housing and immigrant status for all, be the primary changes. Workers must determine the outcomes of the consultation,” said Hussan.

Keith Currie, a vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, said the sector has made adjustments during the pandemic to ensure worker safety. Banking services are brought to the farms, new housing quarters built and arrangements made to deliver groceries to workers — all to lessen exposure to COVID-19.

“There are obviously things we can do quickly, but it’s important to have national standards. Different jurisdictions impose different rules. We don’t have consistency. We need to work collaboratively to ensure the safety of our workers,” said Currie, whose organization represents 200,000 farms.

“Consistency is a good thing. We want that consistency right across the board so everybody knows what to expect.”

Nicholas Keung is a Toronto-based reporter covering immigration for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

Ottawa will roll out COVID-19 vaccine to provinces on basis of population, Alberta says

Dosages of Canada’s vaccines will be handed out to provinces based on population, an Alberta Health spokesperson says.

That would mean how many doses each province gets will be decided by how many people it has — not how many health-care workers, how many cases it’s facing, or how many seniors live there.

“Provinces and territories did not place orders, allocations are being provided by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) on a per-capita basis,” spokesperson Tom McMillan said.

“Per Alberta’s perspective, we’re following the same approach we’ve taken to all vaccines which is that all the provinces work with the federal government to come together.”

The distribution model could become complicated if dosages of the vaccine are available in waves — and not all at once — forcing government officials to prioritize who first gets the vaccine.

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, said on Tuesday it’s likely the first phase of the vaccine rollout won’t see enough doses for everyone “all at once” and instead will come in “batches.”

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and professor at the University of Ottawa, said per capita distribution is not the right plan — particularly if there’s a limited amount of the vaccine.

Imagine a Canada that doesn’t have provinces, he said. “You would send it to where it is needed without having to consider the ancient Canadian curse of the federal-provincial divide.”

“If you have a limited resource, you apply that resource strategically, not politically, not equitably,” said Deonandan.

“It’s just not the time for equity, strangely enough. This is a time for strategic application,” he said.

“Maybe you should distribute it based upon, not the per capita, but the actual cases per capita. If not that, then maybe the deaths per capita. If not that, then maybe who is closest to health-care capacity overrun,” he said.

When asked about per-capita distribution, PHAC did not offer a direct answer and said final plans were still being worked out.

“Final key populations for early COVID-19 immunization will be determined by (the National Advisory Committee on Immunization), once more is known about the vaccines for Canada and their delivery schedule,” the agency said in a statement.

“Allocations of vaccines and rollout will be determined by (federal, provincial and territorial) governments, informed by NACI advice.”

The Alberta government spokesperson said it’s using the recommendations provided by NACI as a starting point for distribution.

Those guidelines say vaccines should first be distributed to vulnerable populations like seniors, those with underlying medical conditions and front-line health-care workers.

Just how the COVID-19 vaccine will be distributed and to who has become a hot topic after two drug companies announced successful early results.

Last week, Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech announced their vaccine candidate showed signs of being 90 per cent effective. Canada has signed on to purchase 20 million doses of that vaccine.

Then on Monday, Massachusetts-based Moderna said early results showed its vaccine candidate was 94.5 per cent effective. Canada has inked a deal with Moderna for 56 million doses of its vaccine.

Njoo said the current goal is to vaccinate the vast majority of Canadians by the end of 2021. The government is hopeful that January could mark the beginning stages of a national rollout of vaccines.

While there’s no law that states the public health agency must do it that way, per capita makes the most sense given the complexity of trying to decide who gets the vaccine first, said Katherine Fierlbeck, a professor political science at Dalhousie University. Provinces could also choose to redistribute vaccines between each other, she said.

“(PHAC) had guidelines (during H1N1) but it was up to the provinces to put the guidelines into action,” Fierlbeck said. “Different provinces did things differently, as they do, and there was a lot of confusion.

“The distribution of anything is political.”

Just getting the vaccine to the provinces will not be easy. The Pfizer vaccine requires ultracold storage of minus 80C. The Moderna vaccine would only require temperatures that a standard household refrigerator could provide.

With files from Tonda MacCharles

Kieran Leavitt is an Edmonton-based reporter covering provincial affairs for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

Midland council approves 1.2 per cent pay increase for non-unionized employees

The decision of whether or not to approve a scheduled pay increase for non-unionized employees was highly contested during a Town of Midland council meeting on Oct. 21.

Council was presented with a staff report requesting approval to process a 1.25 per cent cost-of-living adjustment for non-unionized management, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2020.

“I think it would be very irresponsible for us to choose to give people pay increases when we know as a community we are struggling,” said Coun. Carole McGinn. “I don’t believe this is a burden we should be putting on our taxpayers.”

Laura Yorkin, director of human resources for the Town of Midland, noted the town has already given pay increases to all unionized employees this year. Employees represented by OPSEU and IBEW received one per cent cost-of-living adjustment increases, while those working for the fire department received 2.75 per cent pay bumps.

Although pay increases for all employees were included in the 2020 budget approved by council in December, some councillors felt the change in the town’s financial situation warranted an about-face.

“To me this is just the wrong time to approve this,” said Coun. Bill Gordon. “Not getting a cost-of-living increase this late in the year is not going to change anybody’s financial status. They haven’t had the money all year.”

Coun. Cody Oschefski disagreed, suggesting all employees should be treated fairly.

“We have approved raises for our union employees and other employees,” said Oschefski. “Creating division within your employees is never good for morale.”

David Denault, chief administrative officer for the town of Midland, vouched for town employees. He said he looks at the town staff as one big team and wants them to all be treated fairly. 

Denault added the increase was needed in order to keep Midland competitive. 

“We are part of a larger community when we are competing for talent,” said Denault. “When employees look at that community, they will judge us by how we act and how we treat our employees.”

In the end, council voted 5-3 in favour of the scheduled pay bump. 

The increase will cost the town approximately $47,000.

Front-line and low-income workers would benefit most from paid sick days, advocates say

When Toronto Mayor John Tory asked the province Wednesday to increase restrictions in Canada’s largest city to help curb the spread of COVID-19, among the recommendations was support for workers, so they can take time off to isolate and get tested for COVID-19 without fear of losing their incomes or jobs.

Labour advocates say this sounds like yet another call for paid sick days — something they’ve been asking for since the onset of the pandemic.

Deena Ladd, executive director of the Workers’ Action Centre, has been calling for the province to implement job-protected paid sick days for months. The people who don’t have paid sick days are often the most vulnerable — meaning they may choose work over health and safety because they can’t afford otherwise, she said.

“The provincial government has absolutely ignored this issue,” Ladd said.

Kate Hayman, an emergency physician, assistant professor at the University of Toronto and member of the steering committee for the Decent Work and Health Network, has also been calling for universal paid sick leave.

It’s our most precarious workers who are most likely to not have paid sick days — low-income workers, essential workers, people who can’t work from home, marginalized workers and many health-care workers, she said.

And with contact tracing weakening under the growing weight of cases in Ontario — multiple regions have had to on contact tracing because of the sheer volumeit’s time for a sick leave policy that covers everyone, Hayman said, so that workers don’t go to work sick and cause further outbreaks that can’t be properly traced.

During the pandemic, the province is guaranteeing unlimited unpaid, job-protected sick days related to COVID-19. In 2018, Premier Doug Ford cut the two paid days the province once offered. Ontario was one of just three provinces that guaranteed a small number of paid sick days. Now only Quebec and Prince Edward Island require employers to provide paid sick leave, two days and one day respectively. (Federally regulated employees are entitled to three days paid sick leave.)

Patty Coates, president of the Ontario Federation of Labour, said though Doug Ford was praised earlier on in the pandemic, his popularity is now waning among labour advocates, who have been asking for paid sick days since the beginning of the pandemic.

“This government has done the bare minimum,” Coates said.

The organizations Ladd, Coates and Hayman represent all want the same thing: for the province to mandate seven permanent days of sick leave for all workers, plus 14 extra days during the pandemic.

The seven days should be provided by the employer, Ladd said, adding that the province should look at subsidizing the other 14 for those businesses struggling to get by right now.

Though the federal government is offering a yearlong emergency benefit for people isolating due to COVID-19, Ladd said the time it takes to access the benefit is prohibitive to many low-income workers.

Coates added that the benefit offers no job protection, meaning employees may feel intimidated or risk losing their jobs if they take it.

Jim Stanford, director of the Centre for Future Work, thinks offering provincially mandated paid sick leave is a “no-brainer,” especially during the pandemic, and says the government should carry at least some of the cost.

Less than half of Canadian workers have access to paid sick leave through their employer, he said, and among low-wage workers it’s closer to 11 per cent.

“The overlap between COVID-19 and precarious work is frightening,” Stanford said. It’s “undermining the public health battle” as low-income workers are more likely to get COVID-19.

Ladd said the workers most likely to not have paid sick leave, and therefore to go to work sick, are those in the hardest-hit zones, such as Peel, “an area where temp agency work is rampant.”

Another sector where precarious low-paid work is common — again, without sick days — is long-term care, where Canada has seen a number of deadly outbreaks, she added.

Advocates say a provincial paid sick leave policy would prevent workers from going to work sick and be a key part of an economic recovery.

For Kim Bradley, who supervises a daycare facility in Curtis, Ont., the pandemic has highlighted issues she and her colleagues have always faced: if they get sick and have to stay home, they won’t be paid.

So far, her staff has been lucky, as they aren’t in a COVID hot spot. But if she were working in Peel or Brampton, Bradley said she would be “terrified.”

Many people in this occupation live paycheque to paycheque, Bradley said. They can’t afford to take time off work, nor wait for the federal emergency benefit to arrive.

Having paid sick days would alleviate a lot of anxiety in her workplace, she said, and would remove the health risk many workers face.

“People could die because of this,” she said.

Nita Chhinzer, an associate professor of human resources at the University of Guelph, said more organizations have increased paid sick leave since the pandemic began, according to a survey by the Conference Board of Canada. But many employees who have paid sick days aren’t the ones being exposed to the pandemic on a daily basis, she said.

Chhinzer acknowledges that not all companies can afford to pay for sick days, but says the provinces can. She points to the $19 billion of federal funding announced in July for the provinces to subsidize pandemic emergency measures, including paid sick days, as proof.

One industry that does not often provide paid sick leave is food service. Restaurant industry leaders say that right now, their industry doesn’t have the funds to pay workers for sick days, and that the government would need to fund sick leave if they mandated it.

James Rilett, vice-president for Central Canada of Restaurants Canada, said the organization would consider supporting such a measure, depending on what it looks like.

“Anything that makes it easier for employees and employers to meet … the restrictions in the guidelines, would be something we could support,” Rilett said.

“In our industry employers just can’t afford to take on additional costs.”

Larry Isaacs, president of the Firkin Group of Pubs, said his restaurants are not allowing staff to work sick, but if the government required paid sick days, he would want government funding to help ease the burden.

“There isn’t any money in our industry right now,” he said.

Correction – Nov. 20, 2020: This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said that during the pandemic, the Ontario government is guaranteeing 10 unpaid, job-portected sick days related to COVID-19. In fact, the province is guaranteeing unlimited, unpaid sick days.

Rosa Saba is a Calgary-based business reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter:

Structure demolished at Hydro One’s Orillia project site, resident says

Hydro One will not confirm a report that a structure at the site of its future provincial grid control centre in West Orillia was recently demolished, citing “high security needs” as the reason.

A photo taken by local resident Bill Tiffin in late October appears to show a concrete structure reduced to rubble at the fenced property along University Avenue.

The image of the site, where construction is underway on the facility, also shows a pair of excavators next to the broken-up material.

“I go by there 10 times a day, so I saw them building the entire complex, including that one tower that I watched them tear down,” Tiffin told Simcoe.com.

The local man said he watched as a “huge machine” was brought to the site in advance of what he said was the structure’s demolition.

“Something with a reach that you would normally use for digging canals and ponds and stuff,” he said. “I thought, ‘I wonder what they’re going to do with that thing’ – well, the next day I saw them using it to tear that tower down.”

Simcoe.com contacted Hydro One to determine if a structure was, indeed, torn down and, if so, for what purpose.

Tiffin’s photo was provided to Hydro One at its request.

A representative for the company later responded to Simcoe.com’s questions in an email statement.

“Due to its high security needs, specific construction details are not available,” said Alex Stewart, media relations and communications. “We expect construction to be completed by late 2021.”

Stewart said the “state of the art facility will be home to highly-skilled employees whose primary function will be to ensure the safe, secure and reliable delivery of power to communities across the province.”

Once the grid-control centre is completed, an existing facility in Barrie will serve as a backup control centre.

Hydro One anticipates moving between 150 and 250 jobs to the Orillia facility. The company’s investment in the local development is said to be approximately $150 million.

City officials, meanwhile, peg the near-term economic impact of the development at about $400 million.


‘It’s turning into a crisis’: Simcoe-Grey MPP Jim Wilson calls on province to stop ‘out of control’ insurance premium hikes for condo owners

Simcoe-Grey MPP Jim Wilson is putting pressure on the Ford government to take steps to address what he calls ‘the insanity that has run rampant’ in the commercial insurance industry.

During the Oct. 21 question period at Queen’s Park, Wilson made his case to Ontario’s Finance Minister Rod Phillips as to why he feels its time to regulate the industry.

One of the condo corporations in Green Briar saw its premium double to more than $16,000 in 2019, and it doubled again this year to $30,000, despite not having any claims during these periods. And there doesn’t appear to be any relief in sight, with the condo board anticipating the premium may double again to almost $60,000 for 2021.

Wilson likened this to “near criminal behaviour” and noted it is affecting condo corporations everywhere in the province.

Wilson doesn’t accept the reasons the industry has made for jacking up the rates, such as costs related to the pandemic and severe weather.

“It’s turning into a crisis,” he said. “People can’t get insurance, they need insurance, and the excuses from the industry are unacceptable.”

Phillips said the government has been keeping a close watch on all segments of the insurance industry since it came into power in 2018. While he didn’t offer a plan that would fix the problem, he did say the government has been meeting with consumers, insurance companies and the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario to come up with solutions.

“(Insurance companies) need to understand their customers today will be their customers tomorrow,” Phillips said. “Ontarians expect no less than fair treatment from them.”

Provincial tribunal gives green light to Wasaga residential project

A 14-unit townhouse development in Wasaga Beach will be allowed to go ahead after Ontario’s land-planning tribunal dismissed an appeal by a neighbouring property owner.

E-3 Community Services had challenged the town’s 2018 decision to approve the development proposed for the corner of on the basis it would overlook a residence where several of its clients live.

E-3 provides services and supports to people with developmental and intellectual disabilities, and maintains a residential facility and a motel in the immediate vicinity of the proposed development.

Along with concerns about building height, shadowing, and the transition from a low-density to high-density residential development, E-3’s position was the project would have a negative impact on the lives of its clients and its clients’ families.

Local Planning Appeal Tribunal member Hugh Wilkins, who oversaw the hearing, ruled the appellant failed to demonstrate the zoning bylaw amendment that would allow the project to go ahead was inconsistent with the Provincial Policy Statement, or the official plans of the county and the town.

The appellant also failed to demonstrate how the project would have a negative impact on its properties, or the lives of its clients, he wrote in the ruling issued Sept. 16.

In his ruling, Wilkins stated that the development will “add to the range of housing mix in the town and provide efficient infill development at a density that is transit-supportive, is close to public-service facilities and amenities, and utilizes existing infrastructure.”

ADA Homes is proposing to build two seven-unit blocks on the 6.7-acre property. In 2018, it made several zoning change requests for the property, including to minimum lot coverage, a reduction in frontage, and a reduction in side-yard setbacks.

The property’s zoning was also changed, from tourism commercial to high-density residential.

Susan Delacourt: Black Lives Matter made a big impact and Trump-style populism is on the slide in Canada and U.S., says poll

may be no big deal to as far as his personal health goes, but it is sapping the strength of the populism that got him elected four years ago, according to a large, new survey of political values in the U.S. and Canada.

Populism is on the wane in Canada too, according to the cross-border poll by the Innovative Research Group, which also found that Canadians and Americans are more politically similar than one might assume in the fall of 2020.

The survey found, for instance, that the Black Lives Matter movement appears to have triggered a significant rise in people’s regard for Black citizens in Canada and the United States.

Both of these developments — declines in populism and racism — would appear to be not very good news for an American president who has been whipping up the two polarizing forces in a bid to seal his re-election on Nov. 3.

But they are also possible signs of at least something good coming out of a dreadful year in the U.S., Canada and around the world. The pandemic has wreaked all kinds of havoc in public health and the economy, but it has also transformed the Canada-U.S. landscape in ways unforeseen since the polling firm did a major survey like this before the last presidential election.

Multiple U.S. polls have been showing Trump’s re-election prospects in a slump, but , given exclusively to the Star, dives into some of the underlying values driving the political mood in Canada and the United States as a momentous election looms in less than a month.

“So for Trump, he’s got a less populist country. He’s got a less angry country,” says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research. “Americans are more angry at their governments than Canadians are, but they are less angry than they were four years ago, which is a bit of a surprise.”

The survey was carried out through online interviews with 2,771 eligible Canadian voters and 2,435 registered American voters between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6 — a week that saw headlines exploding in both countries about Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis.

Innovative Research has been tracking the rise and fall of populism for several years now by asking people about their levels of trust in experts, governments, “common sense” and compromise.

The idea is that populism thrives on cynicism toward anything related to governments, elites and expertise — and breeds political polarization away from the middle ground. By these measures, the United States and Canada are currently seeing populism and polarization on the wane.

Trust in experts and preference for compromise is actually up significantly from where it stood in both countries four years ago, the survey found. In 2016, 55 per cent of Americans and 52 per cent of Canadian respondents agreed with the statement that “too often the government listens to experts instead of common sense.”

In 2020, that is no longer the majority view. In Canada, only 44 per cent of respondents said this year that they preferred common sense over expert opinion, and only 42 per cent of Americans thought that way.

“That’s COVID,” says Lyle, who has been watching Canadian opinion flocking back to science and away from street smarts throughout this pandemic.

“It became clear to people, as COVID fundamentally disrupted our world, that town halls are not enough to bring us back to normal,” he says. “People believe it will be experts in white coats that find the vaccine that will allow people to return to their regular lives.”

A full 51 per cent of Americans now say compromise is a necessary job for government — up 10 percentage points over 2016. Canadians’ opinions about compromise have shifted less dramatically, staying roughly steady in favour (50 to 51 per cent). But misgivings about the middle ground may be declining. In 2016, 34 per cent of Canadians said compromise usually didn’t end well, but that figure is only 31 per cent this year. (Polls conducted online do not come with a margin of error.)

Lyle says that this result, along with the marked increase in favourable opinion about Black people, are the two big standouts in this massive survey.

“The Black Lives Matter thing is really connecting in Canada as it is in the States,” Lyle says “It’s caused people to reconsider how they view Black people, and that’s dramatic.”

This finding emerges in what Lyle’s poll calls the “xenophobia index,” which tracks people’s response when asked to register their views on various segments of the population, from very favourable to unfavourable.

The difference between 2016 and 2020 is most remarkable in positive opinions of Black people, which have seen a 10-plus percentage-point jump in both countries. In 2016, only 51 per cent of Americans said they had favourable or very favourable views on Black citizens. That’s up to 62 per cent in this newest survey. The same jump has happened in Canada, from 55 per cent to 65.

COVID-19 has appeared to widen differences between Canada and the United States in many ways, most notably in the respective government’s management of the crisis. At times, Trudeau has almost seemed to be trying to be the anti-Trump, doing everything the American president does not.

But Lyle has been struck in this year’s survey by all the ways in which Canadian and American values are converging between 2016 and now. Mainly that’s happened by both countries moving away from polar differences on everything from globalization to view on whether it’s “hard to get ahead.” Americans are little less likely this year to feel that economic odds are against them, for instance, while Canadians are more so.

A fascinating finding shows that Trump and Trudeau actually enjoy similar approval ratings in their respective countries too — 48 per cent approval for the Canadian prime minister compared to 46 per cent for Trump. But the president, unsurprisingly, elicits more intense views; more people strongly like him and dislike him. Strong disapproval for Trump sits at 40 per cent, while Trudeau is strongly disliked by 27 per cent of respondents.

For the most part, the survey found remarkable cross-border similarity on an array of values such as free trade, government regulation and law and order.

But two big cultural differences stand: Americans are far more committed to hunting than Canadians are, and they are also far more likely hold “traditional” social values. “While a majority of Canadians are socially liberal, Americans are divided,” Lyle says.

This cross-border cultural solidarity bodes well for Canada-U.S. co-operation beyond the Nov. 3 election, especially if Trump loses. And yes, the survey does point in that direction, with 47 per cent of American respondents saying they intended to vote for Democrat Joe Biden and only 42 per cent leaning toward Trump. But 2016 was a lesson in not taking any predictions as foreordained — so is 2020, given that no one was forecasting a pandemic for this year.

Canadians and Americans are likely united, even unanimous, in hoping for an imminent end to the virus. But the collateral benefits of this strange year — the decline of populism and anti-Black racism — one hopes will be longer lasting.

Susan Delacourt is an Ottawa-based columnist covering national politics for the Star. Reach her via email: or follow her on Twitter: @susandelacourt