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Month: September 2022

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Heather Scoffield: Reopening too quickly will cause sickness and death — and that’s not all

Sep 15, 2022 , , , , by shlf

The economic grind of the second wave is coming into sharp focus.

But so is the folly of a hasty reopening in the hopes of lightening the load.

On Friday, the latest job numbers from Statistics Canada showed that the rapid rebounds in the labour market over the course of the first reopening this summer have slowed remarkably.

Employment expanded by just 0.5 per cent in October, a meagre increase compared to the 2.7 per cent average monthly expansions we’ve seen since May. It’s not nothing. But it’s clear that the second wave of the virus has begun to take its toll on the recovery, and parts of the labour market have balked.

About 150,000 people retreated from their workplaces and sought shelter in their home offices again. Another 48,000 people working in accommodation and food services lost their jobs, especially in Quebec — reflecting the fact that the second wave is hitting that province harder than elsewhere, and that hotels, restaurants and bars are on the front lines of new restrictions there.

More concerning for our recovery prospects, the mass of people who have been without jobs for at least six months is climbing, spiking at record rates. Long-term unemployment rose by 35 per cent in September and 51 per cent in October. There are now — a quarter of all those who are out of a job.

That’s especially worrisome because staying out of the workforce for long periods often means that skills atrophy and prospects for finding a good job diminish, permanently damaging the ability of companies to find the workers they need to keep producing, and for workers to find the wages they need to pay the bills.

The combination of long-term corrosion with the repeated cycle of short-term restrictions pushes a full recovery further down the road.

At least this time, there isn’t a full shutdown, at least not yet. But with pressure mounting on local public health authorities and premiers alike to let businesses get back to work, there’s no guarantee we won’t be there soon.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had some ominous words on that front on Friday. He pointed to the cautionary tale of the United Kingdom, where political leaders gave in to the pressure to restart the economy before COVID-19 was fully under control. As a result, coronavirus cases exploded, and it’s now back in full lockdown. Its efforts to boost the economy actually did more harm, setting back its path to recovery substantially.

“We’re not going to do that,” Trudeau said.

But in some parts of the country, we may be in the midst of doing exactly that.

The number of new cases topped 1,000 in both Ontario and Quebec on Friday, a day after Premier Doug Ford rolled out a budget meant to stimulate the economy back to life. He’s also easing some restrictions starting this weekend, much to the dismay of some public health experts and authorities.

In Montreal, local authorities have pushed for fewer restrictions, but Premier François Legault has resisted.

Across the country, it’s clear that business is getting antsy, and is lobbying hard for both a better, more surgical control of contagion and a simultaneous reopening. Of course, any responsible politician would hear their cry, and the troubling labour market weighs on the minds of business and government alike.

But that combination of controlling the contagion and reopening business just doesn’t seem possible right now. Without wide distribution and easy access to rapid testing and contact tracing, brash reopening invites more COVID-19 cases, which in turn leads to another round of closures.

This destructive and often confusion-inducing tug-of-war shouldn’t have to happen.

Trudeau points to supports the federal government has recently put in place to ensure that any business hit by a localized closure will get extra rent subsidies, as well as the now-standard access to wage subsidies and business loans that are readily available to companies on the brink.

They should be able to weather more pandemic restrictions even if it’s not their first choice, the federal government believes, and their long-term prosperity depends on it.

But that message gets lost in the day-to-day fear in the bills coming due, the lack of confidence that federal and provincial support is adequate, and the deep drive to get back to work, back to business.

It looks like the federal government can afford to stifle those instincts with generous, well-timed support, according to . As long as Ottawa removes its subsidies when the pandemic winds down, the deficits it has bulked up during the crisis are big but manageable.

From day one, Trudeau and his cabinet have repeated like a mantra that control of the pandemic is a prerequisite for economic recovery. Shortcuts will backfire.

But to put make those words meaningful, authorities at all levels need to buy in to the wisdom behind them — with enough restrictions to keep the pandemic under control and enough money to keep business and labour whole.

Heather Scoffield is the Star’s Ottawa bureau chief and an economics columnist. Follow her on Twitter:

ythytbu

David Olive: Stock surges and setbacks for the week ending Nov. 20

Sep 14, 2022 , , , , by shlf

Winners

Enthusiast Gaming Holdings Inc. (EGLX.TO) $2.87+53.5%

Investors have been slow to warm to stock in Enthusiast Gaming, which operates the largest online network of gaming sites in North America. The stock was flat this year until news that Joe Biden was making use of the Toronto company’s nearly 1,000 YouTube channels and other gaming platforms to reach Gen X and Millennial voters in his U.S. presidential campaign. The stock made further gains this week as Enthusiast expanded its advertising clientele to include consumer-products giants Gillette and the Popeyes fast-food chain.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS.TO) $45.54+1.4%

In the midst of a global pandemic, Canada Goose has held up remarkably well. Earlier this month, the firm reported sales and profits that widely outperformed gloomy analysts’ forecasts. Credit the firm’s increased online prowess, which has helped offset sales declines in traditional stores. Canada Goose also benefits from its sizable presence in Mainland China, the first major economy to fully reopen after gaining control of the pandemic. But the firm warns that European and North American sales will remain weak due to rising pandemic cases in those regions.

Cineplex Inc. (CGX.TO) $8.94+22.8%

The thriller now playing at Cineplex theatres is a survival saga that investors have lately taken an interest in. True, in its latest quarter, Cineplex reported a 91 per cent drop in attendance and an 85 per cent plunge in revenues from the same quarter in 2019, and recorded a $121.2 million loss. But the Toronto firm, Canada’s biggest cinema operator, also recently won temporary relief from financial covenants on $460 million in credit facilities. And it was able to raise $303 million in new financing — an act of faith by lenders that the post-pandemic era will see a robust recovery in theatregoing.

Losers

Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL.TO) $34.90-8.5%

Jamieson has been one of the pandemic winners. The stock has more than tripled in value over the past three years, with much of that gain this year. The leading maker of vitamins, minerals and nutritional supplements, based in Toronto, has benefited from the long-term wellness movement. The pandemic further increased demand for supplements that boost immune systems. But as all stock-market darlings do, Jamieson finally reached the point of overvaluation, trading at a pricey 48 times earnings by September. A correction was due. But the underlying fundamentals, including Jamieson’s successful international expansion, remain intact.

Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO) $31.75-5.8%

Barrick investors have been riding a roller coaster this year. Gold went on a tear, hitting a record price of $2,050 (U.S.) in August. But the gold price has since slumped as perceived geopolitical risk — the main reason people buy gold — has receded. Barrick has reported an impressive profit of $3.0 billion (U.S.) year-to-date. But the pandemic and local political disputes have intermittently closed two of Barrick’s biggest mines. And at least some investors were put off the stock when, earlier this month, Warren Buffett revealed that he had dumped about 40 per cent of his Barrick stake, so keen to do so that he took a loss on the shares.

Metro Inc. (MRU.TO) $60.68-1.9%

Metro, one of Canada’s top three grocery chains, is among the pandemic economy’s winners. Some investors who anticipated the strong 11.4 per cent increase in fourth-quarter profit that Metro reported this week took their winnings off the table. But Metro’s growth prospects remain intact. Building on a 160 per cent surge in online sales in the latest quarter, Metro is accelerating growth its online-pickup capacity, and upgrading its online pharmacy operations to counter Amazon’s recent move into prescription drugs. Metro is also expanding the variety of its prepared-meal offerings, catering to the growing “grocerant” trend of selling restaurant-like meals.

David Olive is a Toronto-based business columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

nussdot

Phoning it in? Not this Toronto contact tracer, who puts his hopes into each call as a way to break the chain of COVID-19 transmission

Sep 9, 2022 , , , , by shlf

Mahad Nur considers himself a disease detective.

With more than a decade of experience as a contact tracer, Nur knows the importance of tracking down people to limit the spread of infectious diseases, especially one as wily as .

“The virus spreads from person to person, and we know that it is spreading within the community,” said Nur, supervisor of Toronto Public Health’s Communicable Disease Liaison Unit. “By following up with every contact of an individual, you are hoping to break that transmission chain.

“This can turn into a really big spider web of contacts and that’s what we’re trying to avoid by tracing contacts, encouraging isolation of those contacts and breaking the transmission of the virus.”

Nur, who worked many 12-hour days during the early months of the pandemic, is watching COVID-19 cases rise in the city. He remains hopeful that with each phone call from Toronto Public Health, another person will take proper measures and halt the virus’s exponential spread. On Sunday, the province reported 491 new cases, including 137 in Toronto.

Heading into fall and a possible second wave, Nur spoke with the Star about the challenges of contact tracing, his ongoing struggle for a work-life balance and why thinking of our loved ones is the key to ending the pandemic.

You’ve worked as a contact tracer for many years. What is different about this job during the pandemic?

In the beginning, people didn’t really know about the virus and the role of public health in the COVID response. It was a challenge. We had to quickly let people know why public health was calling. People didn’t understand why we needed to know where they worked and who they’ve spent time with. People are now expecting our calls, which makes things easier for us.

What’s the most important thing about your job, the thing you need to do so every phone call is a success?

We need to gain the trust of the people we are speaking with and make them feel comfortable enough to tell us these important things about their lives. We explain our roles, explain the reason for our calls, explain the follow-up steps and explain that we will need to speak with their close contacts. We’re trying to gain their trust the whole time. We try to get across that we are calling for the overall good.

In recent weeks, the pandemic has shifted with more young people testing positive for COVID-19. Are conversations different now that 63 per cent of new cases provincewide (as of Sunday) are in people under the age of 40?

Not really. The younger folks might have more contacts because they are socializing more. But for the most part, we see that people have definitely tried their hardest to isolate within their bubble. This might not happen in all circumstances. But for the most part, most close contacts we follow up with are household contacts or people within an individual’s social bubble.

What is a challenge your team faces during these phone conversations?

The biggest thing we have to take into consideration is that most of these individuals are not feeling well. They are sick. So if we need to take a pause during the interview, and give them a break, that’s OK. These phone calls do take a long time and we want to be sure we are collecting accurate information. It’s not an easy process and we try to take our time. We don’t have a clock saying we have to finish the call within 30 minutes

Your team spends a lot of time with people on the phone, talking COVID. What is a common misconception or misunderstanding about the virus?

It varies. That’s why we really take the opportunity to explain the facts and debunk the misinformation going around.

Can you give me an example?

One that we hear is: “Masks don’t work when it comes to COVID-19.” This when we take the time to really, really try to explain that the reason you wear a mask is to protect yourself and to protect others. And that when two people are wearing a mask, the risk of the transmission of the virus is reduced.

You know a lot about COVID-19. What’s the most common question you’ve received from family and friends in the pandemic?

When is this going to end? That’s the question I get a lot. People have planned weddings and other social events. With all the restrictions … people always want to know if things are going to change. I don’t have an answer. The message I keep trying to explain is that it’s so important to ensure you are doing the most you can to protect your loved ones. People understand that.

We’ve all had to adjust to life in a pandemic. How does your job influence what you do at home to keep your family safe?

I practise what I preach. And I take a lot of pride in that. The hardest thing I had to explain to my own family members, especially at the beginning, was to tell them we can’t visit. I took the distancing recommendations very seriously. I’m such a family-oriented person, with lots of friends who do lots of activities together. The hardest part for me was to keep the distance from the people I love.

You said in one of our earlier conversations that you think about COVID day and night. Are you finding ways to take your mind off work?

It has been difficult to separate my work from my home life. It’s been nine months, and I’m still trying to make that balance work. I can close my computer at the end of the day, but I still think about it — all the things that need to be followed up on, the ways I can support my staff. But I try to disconnect by spending time with my kids, maybe taking them for a bike ride. Watching basketball, even though it’s a bummer that the Raptors are out of the playoffs. Or sitting outside in the evenings and relaxing, connecting with family members (by phone) who don’t live in the city.

When you think back over the last year, is there a moment in your job that you think you won’t forget, one that you will carry with you?

That moment was right at the beginning. I was off work when the first case (of COVID-19) was reported. I looked at my phone and saw all the emails coming in and I said: ‘It’s here.’ Working in public health, you always hear stories about SARS (the 2003 outbreak). When I saw Dr. (Eileen) de Villa on TV saying Toronto had its first case of COVID, I knew in that moment things were going to be different, that 10 years down the line, I’m going to have COVID stories to share.

As cases of COVID-19 climb, what do you want people to think about in their daily lives?

Not everybody is a nurse in an emergency department. Not everybody is a doctor treating somebody who is sick. Not everybody is a contact tracer. But everybody has a role. If you can do your part, you are contributing to this effort. And if everybody continues to do their part, we will bring this virus to an end.

This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Megan Ogilvie is a Toronto-based health reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: